Burkina Faso vs. Mauritania: O/U 2.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 90¢ · $901 held · ended Nov 13

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$900.88

Combined PnL

$21.56

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 90¢

+45% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$613.67

Total Shares664

Combined PnL+$200.84

Over5 traders

Total Value$161.74

Total Shares890

Combined PnL-$179.28

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-71 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 62.1¢	$401.69	$598.33	+$196.64	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 39¢	$276.59	$125.47	-$151.12	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ Under leg	Underavg 72.5¢	$60.14	$75.52	+$15.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 39¢	$216.45	$49.95	-$166.5
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$90.2	$87.89	-$2.31	36% 326-587 (913)
RN1CTR	Overavg 38¢	$243.9	$67.39	-$176.51	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 65¢	$11.14	$15.34	+$4.2	39% 37-59 (96)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 40.3¢	$2.87	$2.71	-$0.16	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.9	-$0.15	35% 735-1379 (2114)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$2	$1.85	-$0.15	35% 749-1385 (2134)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$401.69

Value

$598.33

PnL

+$196.64

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$276.59

Value

$125.47

PnL

-$151.12

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Under$60.1472.5¢+$15.38

Over$216.4539¢-$166.5

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$90.2

Value

$87.89

PnL

-$2.31

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$243.9

Value

$67.39

PnL

-$176.51

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$11.14

Value

$15.34

PnL

+$4.2

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.87

Value

$2.71

PnL

-$0.16

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.15

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-71 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.