Burkina Faso vs. Mauritania: O/U 1.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 13

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$316.97

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,493

Combined PnL+$531.56

Over2 traders

Total Value$88.35

Total Shares2,079

Combined PnL-$214.59

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 81.8¢	$2.8K	$1.8K	+$463.6	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
RN1	Underavg 95.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$2.96	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 13.1¢	$252.09	$76.85	-$175.24	39% 37-59 (96)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 35.1¢	$18.19	$51.86	+$33.67	36% 763-1361 (2124)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 47.8¢	$317.79	$50.7	-$267.08	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.8¢	$307.47	$25.74	-$281.72
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.7¢	$10.32	$24.96	+$14.64
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 74¢	$32.56	$42.24	+$9.68	45% 595-734 (1329)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 39¢	$7.85	$19.32	+$11.47	35% 750-1386 (2136)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 75¢	$14.8	$18.94	+$4.14	47% 786-902 (1688)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$50.85	$11.5	-$39.35	36% 326-587 (913)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 39.5¢	$3.95	$10	+$6.05	34% 736-1405 (2141)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,812.7

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$463.6

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,493.16

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$2.96

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$252.09

Value

$76.85

PnL

-$175.24

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$18.19

Value

$51.86

PnL

+$33.67

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$317.79

Value

$50.7

PnL

-$267.08

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Both legs:

Over$307.4747.8¢-$281.72

Under$10.3239.7¢+$14.64

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$32.56

Value

$42.24

PnL

+$9.68

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$7.85

Value

$19.32

PnL

+$11.47

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$14.8

Value

$18.94

PnL

+$4.14

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.85

Value

$11.5

PnL

-$39.35

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$3.95

Value

$10

PnL

+$6.05

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.