Burkina Faso vs. Mauritania: O/U 0.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (58%) · Over at 60¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 13

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 58%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$492.13

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 60¢

-27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,843

Combined PnL-$544.69

Under5 traders

Total Value$90.93

Total Shares326

Combined PnL+$52.56

Over — 58%Under — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 83.4¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$211.85	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 83.5¢	$1.1K	$933.23	-$184.62	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
RN1	Overavg 83¢	$612.09	$513.09	-$99	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
SU suntori	Overavg 70.4¢	$168.56	$145.97	-$22.59	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
poshposh	Overavg 83¢	$124.5	$102.75	-$21.75	46% 781-902 (1683)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$27.71	$74.82	+$47.11	41% 91-132 (223)
dips.<$100	Overavg 82¢	$21.32	$17.81	-$3.51	46% 741-864 (1605)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 77¢	$12.42	$11.05	-$1.37	39% 37-59 (96)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$4.68	$8.19	+$3.51	36% 326-587 (913)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$3.71	$5.57	+$1.86	36% 761-1361 (2122)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.95	+$0.05	34% 735-1404 (2139)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$0.37	$0.4	+$0.03	48% 677-745 (1422)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,111.18

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$211.85

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,117.85

Value

$933.23

PnL

-$184.62

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

RN1

Over

Invested

$612.09

Value

$513.09

PnL

-$99

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

suntori

Over

Invested

$168.56

Value

$145.97

PnL

-$22.59

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$124.5

Value

$102.75

PnL

-$21.75

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.71

Value

$74.82

PnL

+$47.11

Record

41%

91-132 (223)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$21.32

Value

$17.81

PnL

-$3.51

Record

46%

741-864 (1605)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$12.42

Value

$11.05

PnL

-$1.37

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.68

Value

$8.19

PnL

+$3.51

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.71

Value

$5.57

PnL

+$1.86

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.