Will Mauritania win on 2026-11-13?

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 89¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 13

Yes12¢No88¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

-$147.2

Smart Money Entry

87.4¢ → 88.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares7,458

Combined PnL-$53.55

Yes8 traders

Total Value$838.21

Total Shares7,714

Combined PnL-$93.66

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (16 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 87.1¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$1.69	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 88¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$10.84	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
fxwd12345	Noavg 87¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$0	76% 32-10 (42)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 87.9¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$41.52	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$477.41	$377.81	-$99.6	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$214.29	$253.25	+$38.96	41% 91-132 (223)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 87.3¢	$161.93	$161.35	-$0.57	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 88¢	$96.91	$95.81	-$1.1	36% 761-1361 (2122)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 88¢	$91.24	$93.84	+$2.6	34% 735-1404 (2139)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$78.4	$64.4	-$14	63% 463-269 (732)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 87.3¢	$62.75	$62.51	-$0.24	35% 749-1385 (2134)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 88¢	$56.33	$55.69	-$0.64	36% 326-587 (913)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$59.94	$49.24	-$10.7	46% 741-864 (1605)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.4¢	$43.41	$41.95	+$5.3	53% 1030-921 (1951)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$47.09	$38.68	-$8.41	43% 507-662 (1169)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 87¢	$11.91	$12.36	+$0.45	26% 250-703 (953)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$17.49	$12.33	-$5.16	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.6	$0.55	-$0.05	43% 808-1065 (1873)

RN1

Invested

$2,466.4

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$1.69

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,400.18

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$10.84

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

fxwd12345

Invested

$1,352.83

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$0

Record

76%

32-10 (42)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,351

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$41.52

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$477.41

Value

$377.81

PnL

-$99.6

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

mouzsynapseCTR

Yes

Invested

$214.29

Value

$253.25

PnL

+$38.96

Record

41%

91-132 (223)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$161.93

Value

$161.35

PnL

-$0.57

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$96.91

Value

$95.81

PnL

-$1.1

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$91.24

Value

$93.84

PnL

+$2.6

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.4

Value

$64.4

PnL

-$14

Record

63%

463-269 (732)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$62.75

Value

$62.51

PnL

-$0.24

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$56.33

Value

$55.69

PnL

-$0.64

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.94

Value

$49.24

PnL

-$10.7

Record

46%

741-864 (1605)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.41

Value

$41.95

PnL

+$5.3

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

smithagentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.09

Value

$38.68

PnL

-$8.41

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$11.91

Value

$12.36

PnL

+$0.45

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.49

Value

$12.33

PnL

-$5.16

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (16 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.