Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Burkina Faso vs. Mauritania end in a draw?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 41¢ · $197 held · ended Nov 13

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 82%

Total Value

$197.46

Combined PnL

$30.57

Smart Money Entry

29¢ → 41¢

+41% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$135.5

Total Shares348

Combined PnL+$34.58

No2 traders

Total Value$61.96

Total Shares89

Combined PnL-$4.02

Yes — 82%No — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.3¢	$47.88	$64.08	+$16.19	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 74¢	$47.75	$47.1	-$0.65	35% 735-1379 (2114)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$19.68	$27.25	+$7.57	34% 735-1404 (2139)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 73¢	$18.22	$14.85	-$3.37	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$12.08	$14.83	+$2.75	36% 761-1361 (2122)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$5.79	$8.09	+$2.3	26% 250-703 (953)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$5.14	$6.85	+$1.71	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$3.29	$4.73	+$1.45	56% 307-245 (552)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$3.12	$4.32	+$1.2	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$2.13	$3.32	+$1.19	35% 749-1385 (2134)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$1.8	$2.03	+$0.23	49% 1668-1706 (3374)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.88

Value

$64.08

PnL

+$16.19

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$47.75

Value

$47.1

PnL

-$0.65

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.68

Value

$27.25

PnL

+$7.57

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$18.22

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$3.37

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.08

Value

$14.83

PnL

+$2.75

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.79

Value

$8.09

PnL

+$2.3

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.14

Value

$6.85

PnL

+$1.71

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.29

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$1.45

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.12

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$1.2

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.13

Value

$3.32

PnL

+$1.19

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.23

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.