Burkina Faso vs. Mauritania: Both Teams to Score

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 85¢ · $580 held · ended Nov 13

Yes15¢No85¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$579.96

Combined PnL

$128.95

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 85¢

+38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$554.81

Total Shares664

Combined PnL+$136.69

Yes4 traders

Total Value$25.15

Total Shares84

Combined PnL-$7.74

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 62.2¢	$251.62	$319.64	+$71.59	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
FO foooool	Noavg 62¢	$100	$136.29	+$36.29	39% 37-59 (96)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 59.7¢	$62	$87.82	+$25.82	53% 1030-921 (1951)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$14.16	$11.33	-$2.83	35% 749-1385 (2134)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 61.6¢	$8.06	$11.05	+$2.99	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$13.12	$10.5	-$2.62	35% 735-1379 (2114)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$3.56	$1.73	-$1.84	46% 781-902 (1683)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.6	-$0.45	34% 735-1404 (2139)

Flaznorp

Invested

$251.62

Value

$319.64

PnL

+$71.59

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

foooool

Invested

$100

Value

$136.29

PnL

+$36.29

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$62

Value

$87.82

PnL

+$25.82

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.16

Value

$11.33

PnL

-$2.83

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$8.06

Value

$11.05

PnL

+$2.99

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.12

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$2.62

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.56

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$1.84

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.45

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.