Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-11-13?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 52¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Yes49¢No51¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$130.21

Smart Money Entry

40.3¢ → 51.5¢

+28% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$853.6

Total Shares1,492

Combined PnL+$176.5

Yes5 traders

Total Value$183.09

Total Shares373

Combined PnL-$46.28

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 39.1¢	$379.61	$444.13	+$94.13	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 61.6¢	$176.69	$139.11	-$37.58	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
SU suitcase6628	Noavg 47¢	$117.5	$131.25	+$13.75	63% 463-269 (732)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 38.3¢	$97.49	$118.92	+$32.68	53% 1030-921 (1951)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 38.5¢	$67.73	$89.69	+$21.96	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Noavg 51.3¢	$57.73	$54.55	-$3.18	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.3¢	$29.3	$29.99	+$0.7
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$28.44	$24.56	-$3.88
RN1<$100	Noavg 41.4¢	$24.06	$30.5	+$6.44	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$27.07	$21.43	-$5.64	6% 17-277 (294)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 41.1¢	$13.12	$14.68	+$1.57	43% 808-1065 (1873)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$14.03	$12.45	-$1.58	36% 761-1361 (2122)
BI biying99999<$100	Noavg 36¢	$8.13	$11.07	+$2.94	33% 88-181 (269)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$10	$8.87	-$1.13	10% 11-100 (111)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 40¢	$6.35	$8.33	+$1.98	39% 37-59 (96)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 42¢	$2.9	$3.62	+$0.72	36% 326-587 (913)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 38¢	$1.09	$1.41	+$0.32	56% 307-245 (552)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$1.58	$1.23	-$0.35	48% 677-745 (1422)

Flaznorp

Invested

$379.61

Value

$444.13

PnL

+$94.13

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$176.69

Value

$139.11

PnL

-$37.58

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

suitcase6628

Invested

$117.5

Value

$131.25

PnL

+$13.75

Record

63%

463-269 (732)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$97.49

Value

$118.92

PnL

+$32.68

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$67.73

Value

$89.69

PnL

+$21.96

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$57.73

Value

$54.55

PnL

-$3.18

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

Both legs:

No$29.351.3¢+$0.7

Yes$28.4455¢-$3.88

RN1<$100

Invested

$24.06

Value

$30.5

PnL

+$6.44

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.07

Value

$21.43

PnL

-$5.64

Record

17-277 (294)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$13.12

Value

$14.68

PnL

+$1.57

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.03

Value

$12.45

PnL

-$1.58

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

biying99999<$100

Invested

$8.13

Value

$11.07

PnL

+$2.94

Record

33%

88-181 (269)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$8.87

PnL

-$1.13

Record

10%

11-100 (111)

foooool<$100

Invested

$6.35

Value

$8.33

PnL

+$1.98

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.62

PnL

+$0.72

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.41

PnL

+$0.32

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.58

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.35

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.