Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Benin vs. Central African Republic: O/U 5.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 46¢ · $498 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 75%
$497.76
$21.03
42.6¢ → 46.2¢
+8% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dips.CTR | Overavg 42.9¢ | $211.6 | $194.75 | +$12.88 | 45% 544-659 (1203) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100 | Overavg 42.9¢ | $91.26 | $98.39 | +$7.13 | 55% 89-74 (163) |
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100 | Overavg 41.2¢ | $50.74 | $56.99 | +$6.25 | 17% 36-181 (217) |
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100 | Overavg 42.9¢ | $44.76 | $47.55 | +$11.8 | 63% 369-218 (587) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Overavg 42.9¢ | $72.94 | $46.25 | +$2.17 | 42% 353-481 (834) |
SL SlickRick123<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $54.68 | $40.49 | -$14.19 | 27% 185-494 (679) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 61.5¢ | $17.8 | $12.43 | -$5.37 | 47% 549-607 (1156) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 25.1¢ | $0.52 | $0.9 | +$0.37 | 56% 4503-3474 (7977) |
dips.CTRInvested
$211.6
Value
$194.75
PnL
+$12.88
Record
45%
544-659 (1203)
Invested
$91.26
Value
$98.39
PnL
+$7.13
Record
55%
89-74 (163)
Invested
$50.74
Value
$56.99
PnL
+$6.25
Record
17%
36-181 (217)
Invested
$44.76
Value
$47.55
PnL
+$11.8
Record
63%
369-218 (587)
Invested
$72.94
Value
$46.25
PnL
+$2.17
Record
42%
353-481 (834)
Invested
$54.68
Value
$40.49
PnL
-$14.19
Record
27%
185-494 (679)
poshposh<$100Invested
$17.8
Value
$12.43
PnL
-$5.37
Record
47%
549-607 (1156)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.52
Value
$0.9
PnL
+$0.37
Record
56%
4503-3474 (7977)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.