Benin vs. Central African Republic: O/U 2.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$279.72

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 99.5¢

+18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,823

Combined PnL+$577.01

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.24

Total Shares560

Combined PnL-$297.29

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR ARocky33	Overavg 90.8¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$259.92	78% 720-203 (923)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 66.1¢	$416.68	$620.02	+$203.34	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 48.6¢	$100.46	$205.77	+$105.31	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.2	$5	+$2.8	34% 564-1116 (1680)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.2	$5	+$2.8	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.15	$5	+$2.85	41% 562-807 (1369)
RN1CTR	Underavg 56¢	$280	$2.5	-$277.5	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 55.3¢	$17.73	$1.6	-$16.12	52% 784-728 (1512)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$0.81	$0.08	-$0.73	47% 549-607 (1156)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$3	$0.06	-$2.94	27% 185-494 (679)

ARocky33

Over

Invested

$2,703.21

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$259.92

Record

78%

720-203 (923)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$416.68

Value

$620.02

PnL

+$203.34

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$100.46

Value

$205.77

PnL

+$105.31

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

PnL

+$2.8

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

PnL

+$2.8

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$2.15

Value

PnL

+$2.85

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$280

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$277.5

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.73

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$16.12

Record

52%

784-728 (1512)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.81

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.73

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.94

Record

27%

185-494 (679)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.