Benin vs. Central African Republic: Benin O/U 1.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$92.88

Smart Money Entry

93.4¢ → 99.9¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,657

Combined PnL+$106.43

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.14

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$13.55

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smithagent	Overavg 94.5¢	$781.47	$825.76	+$44.29	42% 353-481 (834)
dips.	Overavg 93.5¢	$354.35	$378.43	+$24.08	45% 544-659 (1203)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 99.9¢	$179.82	$179.73	-$0.09	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69	Overavg 88.2¢	$135.32	$153.21	+$17.89	55% 89-74 (163)
AR ARocky33	Overavg 82.7¢	$97.45	$117.7	+$20.25	78% 720-203 (923)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$10.4	$5.05	-$5.35	46% 443-515 (958)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$5.4	$0.06	-$5.34	27% 185-494 (679)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$1.94	$0.02	-$1.92	47% 549-607 (1156)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$0.95	$0.01	-$0.94	44% 405-509 (914)

smithagent

Over

Invested

$781.47

Value

$825.76

PnL

+$44.29

Record

42%

353-481 (834)

dips.

Over

Invested

$354.35

Value

$378.43

PnL

+$24.08

Record

45%

544-659 (1203)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$179.82

Value

$179.73

PnL

-$0.09

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69

Over

Invested

$135.32

Value

$153.21

PnL

+$17.89

Record

55%

89-74 (163)

ARocky33

Over

Invested

$97.45

Value

$117.7

PnL

+$20.25

Record

78%

720-203 (923)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.4

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$5.35

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.4

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.34

Record

27%

185-494 (679)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.94

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.92

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.94

Record

44%

405-509 (914)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.