Spread: Benin (-1.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Benin (50%) · Benin at 80¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Benin80¢Central African Republic20¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Benin

Consensus Traders

Benin 50%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 80¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBenin at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Benin

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Benin80%

Central African Republic20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Benin6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,978

Combined PnL-$871.57

Central African Republic6 traders

Total Value$133.22

Total Shares581

Combined PnL-$242.71

Benin — 50%Central African Republic — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Beninavg 79.9¢	$4.2K	$3.0K	$-1.2K	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
rayvanmechelen	Beninavg 32.6¢	$233.97	$574.21	+$340.24	5% 15-273 (288)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Central African Republicavg 67.5¢	$307.22	$105.98	-$201.24	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
AR ARocky33<$100	Beninavg 70¢	$35.9	$33.37	+$0.77	78% 720-203 (923)
RO Rocky31<$100	Beninavg 49.3¢	$18.23	$29.6	+$11.37	31% 54-120 (174)
dips.<$100	Beninavg 75¢	$29.15	$20.8	-$8.35	45% 544-659 (1203)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Beninavg 48¢	$6.64	$11.07	+$4.43	46% 443-515 (958)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Central African Republicavg 67¢	$32.16	$9.6	-$22.56	52% 192-174 (366)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Central African Republicavg 18¢	$5.31	$5.75	+$0.44	32% 542-1134 (1676)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Central African Republicavg 51¢	$13.77	$5.4	-$8.37	27% 185-494 (679)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Central African Republicavg 66¢	$14.17	$4.29	-$9.88	41% 562-807 (1369)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Central African Republicavg 30¢	$3.3	$2.2	-$1.1	44% 405-509 (914)

GoalLineGhost

Benin

Invested

$4,247.67

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

rayvanmechelen

Benin

Invested

$233.97

Value

$574.21

PnL

+$340.24

Record

15-273 (288)

FlaznorpCTR

Central African Republic

Invested

$307.22

Value

$105.98

PnL

-$201.24

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

ARocky33<$100

Benin

Invested

$35.9

Value

$33.37

PnL

+$0.77

Record

78%

720-203 (923)

Rocky31<$100

Benin

Invested

$18.23

Value

$29.6

PnL

+$11.37

Record

31%

54-120 (174)

dips.<$100

Benin

Invested

$29.15

Value

$20.8

PnL

-$8.35

Record

45%

544-659 (1203)

SnakeBall<$100

Benin

Invested

$6.64

Value

$11.07

PnL

+$4.43

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Central African Republic

Invested

$32.16

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$22.56

Record

52%

192-174 (366)

VenusianCTR<$100

Central African Republic

Invested

$5.31

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.44

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Central African Republic

Invested

$13.77

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$8.37

Record

27%

185-494 (679)

sentrioCTR<$100

Central African Republic

Invested

$14.17

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$9.88

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

lryyyCTR<$100

Central African Republic

Invested

$3.3

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$1.1

Record

44%

405-509 (914)

Research grade

NeutralBenin at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Benin

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Benin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.