Will Benin vs. Central African Republic end in a draw?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$87.55

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 95.8¢

+26% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,190

Combined PnL+$90.74

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.01

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$3.19

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 72.9¢	$470.85	$462.37	-$8.48	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
SL SlickRick123	Noavg 78¢	$325.23	$379.57	+$71.34	27% 185-494 (679)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 75¢	$75	$85	+$10	34% 564-1116 (1680)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 75¢	$53.95	$56.11	+$2.16	32% 542-1134 (1676)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$50.9	$55.55	+$4.65	43% 2584-3425 (6009)
RO Rocky31<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$28.27	$35.41	+$7.14	31% 54-120 (174)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 82¢	$21.78	$21.77	-$0.01	47% 549-607 (1156)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 75¢	$15	$17	+$2	33% 556-1141 (1697)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 75¢	$15	$14.85	-$0.15	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 79¢	$14.2	$14.79	+$0.59	41% 265-378 (643)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 75¢	$11.25	$12.75	+$1.5	41% 562-807 (1369)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$5	$2.8	-$2.2	52% 784-728 (1512)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1.2	$0.21	-$0.99	44% 405-509 (914)

RN1

Invested

$470.85

Value

$462.37

PnL

-$8.48

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

SlickRick123

Invested

$325.23

Value

$379.57

PnL

+$71.34

Record

27%

185-494 (679)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$75

Value

$85

PnL

+$10

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$53.95

Value

$56.11

PnL

+$2.16

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$50.9

Value

$55.55

PnL

+$4.65

Record

43%

2584-3425 (6009)

Rocky31<$100

Invested

$28.27

Value

$35.41

PnL

+$7.14

Record

31%

54-120 (174)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$21.78

Value

$21.77

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$17

PnL

+$2

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

$14.79

PnL

+$0.59

Record

41%

265-378 (643)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$11.25

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$1.5

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$2.2

Record

52%

784-728 (1512)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.99

Record

44%

405-509 (914)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.