Will Angola vs. South Sudan end in a draw?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 57¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$22.87

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 57¢

-21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$326.37

Total Shares497

Combined PnL-$35.78

Yes5 traders

Total Value$43.64

Total Shares149

Combined PnL+$12.92

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 26.4¢	$401.81	$501.58	+$99.77	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.4¢	$203.22	$319.74	+$116.51
└ No leg	Noavg 63.9¢	$198.59	$181.84	-$16.75
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 66.6¢	$329.73	$367.02	+$37.29	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.6¢	$202.02	$185.13	-$16.89
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.4¢	$127.72	$181.9	+$54.18
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 80.6¢	$192.26	$170.54	-$21.72	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
tradecraft	Noavg 65¢	$161.53	$142.89	-$18.64	31% 356-791 (1147)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.8¢	$15.32	$21.13	+$5.81	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$7.53	$12.45	+$4.92	37% 996-1715 (2711)
RN1<$100	Noavg 59¢	$4.37	$9.02	+$4.65	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$4.76	$5.19	+$0.43	46% 2762-3273 (6035)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4	$3.93	-$0.07	52% 852-801 (1653)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$2.22	$3.67	+$1.45	49% 1173-1237 (2410)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.9	$1.2	+$0.3	54% 1422-1229 (2651)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$401.81

Value

$501.58

PnL

+$99.77

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

Both legs:

Yes$203.2226.4¢+$116.51

No$198.5963.9¢-$16.75

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$329.73

Value

$367.02

PnL

+$37.29

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

Both legs:

No$202.0266.6¢-$16.89

Yes$127.7227.4¢+$54.18

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$192.26

Value

$170.54

PnL

-$21.72

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

tradecraft

Invested

$161.53

Value

$142.89

PnL

-$18.64

Record

31%

356-791 (1147)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.32

Value

$21.13

PnL

+$5.81

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.53

Value

$12.45

PnL

+$4.92

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

RN1<$100

Invested

$4.37

Value

$9.02

PnL

+$4.65

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.19

PnL

+$0.43

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

NotJump<$100

Invested

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

852-801 (1653)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.22

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$1.45

Record

49%

1173-1237 (2410)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.