Will Angola win on 2026-11-14?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 87¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes87¢No13¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$26.68

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 86.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,224

Combined PnL+$10.78

No8 traders

Total Value$185.98

Total Shares1,228

Combined PnL+$15.9

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 86.1¢	$903.74	$912.25	+$8.5	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
SU suntori	Yesavg 87.3¢	$190.47	$193.01	+$2.54	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 14¢	$132.5	$146.7	+$14.2	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$21.55	$21.3	-$0.26	42% 1030-1415 (2445)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$12.11	$12.98	+$0.87	47% 936-1036 (1972)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$9.05	$9.46	+$0.41	37% 367-618 (985)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 15.5¢	$5.58	$5.94	+$0.36	31% 355-790 (1145)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$5.77	$5.77	-$0	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$2.93	$2.93	+$0	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 11.2¢	$1.25	$1.23	-$0.02	54% 1417-1228 (2645)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$0.88	$0.97	+$0.09	36% 477-850 (1327)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$903.74

Value

$912.25

PnL

+$8.5

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$190.47

Value

$193.01

PnL

+$2.54

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$132.5

Value

$146.7

PnL

+$14.2

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.55

Value

$21.3

PnL

-$0.26

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$12.11

Value

$12.98

PnL

+$0.87

Record

47%

936-1036 (1972)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$9.05

Value

$9.46

PnL

+$0.41

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$5.58

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$0.36

Record

31%

355-790 (1145)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Invested

$5.77

Value

$5.77

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$2.93

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.02

Record

54%

1417-1228 (2645)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$0.09

Record

36%

477-850 (1327)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.