Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Algeria vs. Togo: O/U 1.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 49¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$10.44

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 48.5¢

-35% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,536

Combined PnL+$364.4

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,102

Combined PnL-$374.84

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Underavg 24¢	$393.98	$738.71	+$344.73	36% 975-1701 (2676)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 74.5¢	$940.34	$725.11	-$215.23	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 76¢	$513.93	$416.82	-$97.12	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
PA pauleta23CTR	Overavg 73¢	$185.04	$122.94	-$62.1	40% 442-667 (1109)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 28¢	$82.82	$87.26	+$4.44	47% 936-1036 (1972)
RN1<$100	Underavg 27¢	$74.24	$81.12	+$6.87	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 27.8¢	$74.72	$79.35	+$4.63	36% 477-850 (1327)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 22¢	$9.74	$13.49	+$3.75	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 60.2¢	$8.59	$8.18	-$0.41	37% 1063-1796 (2859)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 79¢	$1.9	$1.91	+$0.01	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 34¢	$1.86	$1.83	-$0.03	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 21¢	$1.05	$1.05	-$0	42% 1030-1415 (2445)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$393.98

Value

$738.71

PnL

+$344.73

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$940.34

Value

$725.11

PnL

-$215.23

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$513.93

Value

$416.82

PnL

-$97.12

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

pauleta23CTR

Over

Invested

$185.04

Value

$122.94

PnL

-$62.1

Record

40%

442-667 (1109)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$82.82

Value

$87.26

PnL

+$4.44

Record

47%

936-1036 (1972)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$74.24

Value

$81.12

PnL

+$6.87

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$74.72

Value

$79.35

PnL

+$4.63

Record

36%

477-850 (1327)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$9.74

Value

$13.49

PnL

+$3.75

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.59

Value

$8.18

PnL

-$0.41

Record

37%

1063-1796 (2859)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$0.01

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$0.03

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.