Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Algeria vs. Togo: O/U 0.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$5.2K

Smart Money Entry

23.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares4,775

Combined PnL+$7.1K

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares13,758

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 60.5¢	$2.6K	$9.7K	+$7.1K	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
RN1	Overavg 59.3¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$87.95	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 26.8¢	$1.6K	$704.2	-$570.67	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 4¢	$162.56	$446.49	+$283.93	47% 936-1037 (1973)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 30¢	$433.07	$440.29	+$7.22	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 18.7¢	$174.66	$270.15	+$95.49	36% 481-851 (1332)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 61¢	$40.66	$43	+$2.33	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$7.46	$16.41	+$8.95	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
dips.<$100	Overavg 97¢	$7.76	$7.96	+$0.2	47% 993-1122 (2115)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$4.15	$6.78	+$2.63	76% 257-83 (340)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 40.6¢	$1.6K	$2.02	$-1.6K	37% 996-1715 (2711)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$27.6	$0.03	-$27.57	36% 979-1704 (2683)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,567.62

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$7.1K

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,127.03

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$87.95

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,599.98

Value

$704.2

PnL

-$570.67

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$162.56

Value

$446.49

PnL

+$283.93

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$433.07

Value

$440.29

PnL

+$7.22

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$174.66

Value

$270.15

PnL

+$95.49

Record

36%

481-851 (1332)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$40.66

Value

$43

PnL

+$2.33

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.46

Value

$16.41

PnL

+$8.95

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$7.76

Value

$7.96

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.15

Value

$6.78

PnL

+$2.63

Record

76%

257-83 (340)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$1,642.58

Value

$2.02

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.6

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$27.57

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.