Will Togo win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$33.04

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 94.6¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,920

Combined PnL+$1.94

Yes4 traders

Total Value$168.44

Total Shares3,131

Combined PnL+$31.1

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 95¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 96.1¢	$653.48	$654.84	+$1.36	36% 477-850 (1327)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$64.5	$88.19	+$23.69	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$66	$72.63	+$6.63	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$39.86	$39.93	+$0.07	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 94¢	$31.96	$32.47	+$0.51	55% 499-401 (900)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$5.12	$6.19	+$1.07	42% 1030-1415 (2445)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.71	$1.43	-$0.29	46% 2743-3256 (5999)

RN1

Invested

$1,108.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$653.48

Value

$654.84

PnL

+$1.36

Record

36%

477-850 (1327)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.5

Value

$88.19

PnL

+$23.69

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66

Value

$72.63

PnL

+$6.63

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$39.86

Value

$39.93

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.96

Value

$32.47

PnL

+$0.51

Record

55%

499-401 (900)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.12

Value

$6.19

PnL

+$1.07

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$0.29

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.8%

94.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.