Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Algeria vs. Togo: Draw at halftime?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 42¢ · $575 held · ended Nov 14

Yes59¢No41¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$574.61

Combined PnL

-$14.43

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 41.5¢

-27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$203.07

Total Shares373

Combined PnL-$8.65

Yes2 traders

Total Value$139.92

Total Shares363

Combined PnL-$5.78

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 46.3¢	$205.08	$231.62	+$26.54	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
└ No leg	Noavg 41¢	$87.74	$117.69	+$29.96
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.3¢	$117.34	$113.93	-$3.42
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 56.9¢	$198.42	$191.63	-$6.79	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yesavg 38¢	$102	$103.34	+$1.34	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$43.7	$36.58	-$7.13	37% 1063-1796 (2859)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$10	$8.37	-$1.63	40% 442-667 (1109)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.08	-$0.22	54% 1417-1228 (2645)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$205.08

Value

$231.62

PnL

+$26.54

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

Both legs:

No$87.7441¢+$29.96

Yes$117.3446.3¢-$3.42

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$198.42

Value

$191.63

PnL

-$6.79

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yes

Invested

$102

Value

$103.34

PnL

+$1.34

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.7

Value

$36.58

PnL

-$7.13

Record

37%

1063-1796 (2859)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$8.37

PnL

-$1.63

Record

40%

442-667 (1109)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$0.22

Record

54%

1417-1228 (2645)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.