Algeria vs. Togo: 1st Half O/U 0.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 100¢ · $365 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 100%
$364.8
$49.29
44.7¢ → 100¢
+123% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 33.2¢ | $98.28 | $154.65 | +$56.37 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
 RN1 | Underavg 53¢ | $156.7 | $148.91 | -$7.79 | 55% 5402-4371 (9773) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $39.33 | $39.33 | -$0 | 50% 2543-2505 (5048) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $17.89 | $19.12 | +$1.23 | 37% 1063-1796 (2859) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $3 | $2.38 | -$0.62 | 37% 1002-1720 (2722) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 24¢ | $0.32 | $0.41 | +$0.09 | 47% 936-1036 (1972) |
Invested
$98.28
Value
$154.65
PnL
+$56.37
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
RN1Invested
$156.7
Value
$148.91
PnL
-$7.79
Record
55%
5402-4371 (9773)
Invested
$39.33
Value
$39.33
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
2543-2505 (5048)
Invested
$17.89
Value
$19.12
PnL
+$1.23
Record
37%
1063-1796 (2859)
Invested
$3
Value
$2.38
PnL
-$0.62
Record
37%
1002-1720 (2722)
Invested
$0.32
Value
$0.41
PnL
+$0.09
Record
47%
936-1036 (1972)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.