Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (81%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Algeria win on 2026-11-14?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 20¢ · $912 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 100%
$912.4
$28.92
18.4¢ → 19.5¢
+6% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 18.5¢ | $469.08 | $482.23 | +$13.15 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 18¢ | $153.35 | $161.87 | +$8.52 | 35% 438-797 (1235) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 18.8¢ | $134.79 | $135.99 | +$1.21 | 53% 2083-1825 (3908) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $44.45 | $46.92 | +$2.47 | 48% 1095-1172 (2267) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $37.75 | $39.85 | +$2.1 | 37% 1018-1700 (2718) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 18.6¢ | $28.53 | $29.14 | +$0.61 | 42% 990-1359 (2349) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $9 | $9.5 | +$0.5 | 30% 332-773 (1105) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $5.42 | $5.73 | +$0.3 | 37% 353-603 (956) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $1.1 | $1.16 | +$0.06 | 32% 99-206 (305) |
Invested
$469.08
Value
$482.23
PnL
+$13.15
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Invested
$153.35
Value
$161.87
PnL
+$8.52
Record
35%
438-797 (1235)
Invested
$134.79
Value
$135.99
PnL
+$1.21
Record
53%
2083-1825 (3908)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$44.45
Value
$46.92
PnL
+$2.47
Record
48%
1095-1172 (2267)
Invested
$37.75
Value
$39.85
PnL
+$2.1
Record
37%
1018-1700 (2718)
Invested
$28.53
Value
$29.14
PnL
+$0.61
Record
42%
990-1359 (2349)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
$9.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
30%
332-773 (1105)
Invested
$5.42
Value
$5.73
PnL
+$0.3
Record
37%
353-603 (956)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.16
PnL
+$0.06
Record
32%
99-206 (305)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.