Pakhtakor vs. Al Nassr Club: O/U 6.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 69¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 2

Over69¢Under31¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.8K

Combined PnL

-$127.06

Smart Money Entry

61.7¢ → 68.8¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over69%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,643

Combined PnL+$298.66

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,438

Combined PnL-$425.71

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 49.3¢	$4.9K	$4.6K	-$259.21	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.4¢	$1.6K	$2.6K	+$1.1K
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.3¢	$3.3K	$2.0K	$-1.4K
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 37.7¢	$3.6K	$4.6K	+$988.19	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.7¢	$1.8K	$3.3K	+$1.5K
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.6¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$520.64
poshposh	Overavg 57.2¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$259.09	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22	Overavg 69¢	$690	$687.5	-$2.5	65% 1244-674 (1918)
SL SlickRick123	Overavg 66.6¢	$660.33	$680.03	+$19.7	46% 4536-5349 (9885)
SU suntoriCTR	Underavg 47.1¢	$994.87	$677.74	-$317.13	45% 12937-15707 (28644)
RN1CTR	Underavg 59.4¢	$501	$476.63	-$24.37	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
HRTradingCTR	Underavg 47.4¢	$139.34	$86.06	-$53.28	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
RE retarb<$100	Overavg 64.8¢	$55.08	$58.44	+$3.36	48% 4277-4580 (8857)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 48.7¢	$40.46	$57.09	+$16.63	55% 8534-6852 (15386)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 50.3¢	$75.51	$43.95	-$31.56	51% 1005-965 (1970)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Underavg 67.3¢	$42.15	$42.9	+$0.75	40% 1074-1636 (2710)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 68¢	$25	$24.87	-$0.13	50% 19821-20164 (39985)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 60.8¢	$14.26	$16.64	+$2.38	64% 1287-726 (2013)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,893.38

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$259.21

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

Both legs:

Over$1,551.4441.4¢+$1.1K

Under$3,341.9449.3¢$-1.4K

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,570.6

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$988.19

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

Both legs:

Over$1,831.2737.7¢+$1.5K

Under$1,739.3244.6¢-$520.64

poshposh

Over

Invested

$1,484.48

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$259.09

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22

Over

Invested

$690

Value

$687.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

65%

1244-674 (1918)

SlickRick123

Over

Invested

$660.33

Value

$680.03

PnL

+$19.7

Record

46%

4536-5349 (9885)

suntoriCTR

Under

Invested

$994.87

Value

$677.74

PnL

-$317.13

Record

45%

12937-15707 (28644)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$501

Value

$476.63

PnL

-$24.37

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

HRTradingCTR

Under

Invested

$139.34

Value

$86.06

PnL

-$53.28

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

retarb<$100

Over

Invested

$55.08

Value

$58.44

PnL

+$3.36

Record

48%

4277-4580 (8857)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$40.46

Value

$57.09

PnL

+$16.63

Record

55%

8534-6852 (15386)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75.51

Value

$43.95

PnL

-$31.56

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.15

Value

$42.9

PnL

+$0.75

Record

40%

1074-1636 (2710)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25

Value

$24.87

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

19821-20164 (39985)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$14.26

Value

$16.64

PnL

+$2.38

Record

64%

1287-726 (2013)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.8%

68.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.