Pakhtakor vs. Al Nassr Club: O/U 5.5

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 100¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 2

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.8K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Entry

44.3¢ → 100¢

+125% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,442

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,607

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 40.8¢	$6.7K	$9.3K	+$2.6K	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.8¢	$3.5K	$7.1K	+$3.6K
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.4¢	$3.2K	$2.2K	-$968.28
RN1CTR	Underavg 29.5¢	$2.0K	$4.3K	+$2.3K	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 39.5¢	$2.2K	$3.4K	+$1.1K	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
poshposh	Overavg 50.4¢	$122.07	$232.94	+$110.87	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
DI dips.	Overavg 68.8¢	$163.63	$231.43	-$24.61	46% 7320-8504 (15824)
PA pauleta23	Overavg 94.5¢	$193.43	$203.57	+$10.14	66% 23638-11934 (35572)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 72¢	$67.57	$90.05	+$22.48	48% 3291-3584 (6875)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 70¢	$74.7	$77.36	+$2.67	59% 30985-21705 (52690)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$95.96	$32.71	-$63.25	50% 19821-20164 (39985)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 30¢	$24.99	$29.15	+$4.16	50% 11455-11293 (22748)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 34.1¢	$55.46	$28.44	-$27.03	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$9.04	$13.56	+$3.38	46% 7938-9258 (17196)
CC ccllarCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$3.57	$4.43	+$0.86	47% 482-542 (1024)
alpheclabs2<$100	Overavg 8¢	$0.82	$3.57	+$2.76	49% 96-100 (196)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 51.4¢	$8	$2.72	-$5.28	51% 1005-965 (1970)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$12	$0.75	-$11.25	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 70¢	$76.5	$0.06	-$0.97	45% 12937-15707 (28644)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,652.87

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

Both legs:

Over$3,467.640.8¢+$3.6K

Under$3,185.2824.4¢-$968.28

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,990.07

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,212.27

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$122.07

Value

$232.94

PnL

+$110.87

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

dips.

Over

Invested

$163.63

Value

$231.43

PnL

-$24.61

Record

46%

7320-8504 (15824)

pauleta23

Over

Invested

$193.43

Value

$203.57

PnL

+$10.14

Record

66%

23638-11934 (35572)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$67.57

Value

$90.05

PnL

+$22.48

Record

48%

3291-3584 (6875)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$74.7

Value

$77.36

PnL

+$2.67

Record

59%

30985-21705 (52690)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$95.96

Value

$32.71

PnL

-$63.25

Record

50%

19821-20164 (39985)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$24.99

Value

$29.15

PnL

+$4.16

Record

50%

11455-11293 (22748)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.46

Value

$28.44

PnL

-$27.03

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.04

Value

$13.56

PnL

+$3.38

Record

46%

7938-9258 (17196)

ccllarCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.57

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$0.86

Record

47%

482-542 (1024)

alpheclabs2<$100

Over

Invested

$0.82

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$2.76

Record

49%

96-100 (196)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$5.28

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$11.25

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$76.5

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.97

Record

45%

12937-15707 (28644)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.