Pakhtakor vs. Al Nassr Club: O/U 4.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (31%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 2

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$587.62

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 100¢

+75% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,755

Combined PnL+$597.49

Under9 traders

Total Value$256.64

Total Shares1,976

Combined PnL-$9.87

Over — 31%Under — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 57.2¢	$2.6K	$3.2K	+$554.06	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 87¢	$291.66	$196.35	-$95.32	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
└ Over leg	Overavg 87¢	$150.44	$149.57	-$0.86
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.8¢	$141.23	$46.77	-$94.45
FO foooool	Overavg 53¢	$149.46	$190.35	+$40.89	50% 11455-11293 (22748)
RO Rocky31CTR	Underavg 35.1¢	$110.34	$109.89	-$0.45	74% 1759-610 (2369)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$83.17	$92.76	+$9.6	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 86¢	$31.5	$32.65	+$1.16	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$20	$20	+$0	66% 23638-11934 (35572)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 86¢	$12.05	$13.44	+$1.39	46% 7938-9258 (17196)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$8.38	$11.34	+$2.96	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$6.9	$10	+$3.1	51% 1005-965 (1970)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$9.52	$8.46	-$1.06	45% 12937-15707 (28644)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 2.1¢	$9.82	$2.21	-$6.81	46% 7320-8504 (15824)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 6.2¢	$18.19	$1.48	-$16.71	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$1	$0.5	-$0.5	48% 3291-3584 (6875)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,622.06

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$554.06

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$291.66

Value

$196.35

PnL

-$95.32

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

Both legs:

Over$150.4487¢-$0.86

Under$141.2340.8¢-$94.45

foooool

Over

Invested

$149.46

Value

$190.35

PnL

+$40.89

Record

50%

11455-11293 (22748)

Rocky31CTR

Under

Invested

$110.34

Value

$109.89

PnL

-$0.45

Record

74%

1759-610 (2369)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.17

Value

$92.76

PnL

+$9.6

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$31.5

Value

$32.65

PnL

+$1.16

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$20

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

23638-11934 (35572)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$12.05

Value

$13.44

PnL

+$1.39

Record

46%

7938-9258 (17196)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.38

Value

$11.34

PnL

+$2.96

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.1

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.52

Value

$8.46

PnL

-$1.06

Record

45%

12937-15707 (28644)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.82

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$6.81

Record

46%

7320-8504 (15824)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.19

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$16.71

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

48%

3291-3584 (6875)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.