Pakhtakor vs. Al Nassr Club: O/U 2.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 57¢ · $753 held · ends Nov 2

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$752.85

Combined PnL

$0.63

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 57.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$492.05

Total Shares856

Combined PnL+$0.27

Under2 traders

Total Value$260.8

Total Shares614

Combined PnL+$0.36

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 57.3¢	$290.51	$291.37	+$0.86	51% 16720-15862 (32582)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 42.4¢	$254.55	$255	+$0.45	58% 43237-31478 (74715)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 57.7¢	$201.27	$200.68	-$0.59	50% 26133-25998 (52131)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Underavg 43.1¢	$5.89	$5.8	-$0.08	53% 5737-5072 (10809)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$290.51

Value

$291.37

PnL

+$0.86

Record

51%

16720-15862 (32582)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$254.55

Value

$255

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

43237-31478 (74715)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$201.27

Value

$200.68

PnL

-$0.59

Record

50%

26133-25998 (52131)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.89

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

5737-5072 (10809)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.