Pakhtakor vs. Al Nassr Club: O/U 0.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$5.8K
$3.32
99.6¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 99.7¢ | $5.5K | $5.5K | +$22.25 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
VA Vampiro1 | Overavg 96.7¢ | $200 | $206.78 | +$6.78 | 77% 3557-1064 (4621) |
MO mouzsynapseCTR | Underavg 3.5¢ | $135.44 | $116.09 | -$19.35 | 40% 1074-1636 (2710) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 97.6¢ | $43.98 | $45.06 | +$1.08 | 64% 1287-726 (2013) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 95¢ | $10.86 | $9.12 | -$1.74 | 53% 6378-5764 (12142) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 3.5¢ | $5.79 | $0.08 | -$5.71 | 51% 1005-965 (1970) |
Invested
$5,472.89
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$22.25
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
Invested
$200
Value
$206.78
PnL
+$6.78
Record
77%
3557-1064 (4621)
Invested
$135.44
Value
$116.09
PnL
-$19.35
Record
40%
1074-1636 (2710)
Invested
$43.98
Value
$45.06
PnL
+$1.08
Record
64%
1287-726 (2013)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.86
Value
$9.12
PnL
-$1.74
Record
53%
6378-5764 (12142)
Invested
$5.79
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$5.71
Record
51%
1005-965 (1970)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.