Spread: Al Nassr Club (-3.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Al Nassr Club (63%) · Al Nassr Club at 78¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 2

Al Nassr Club78¢Pakhtakor22¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Al Nassr Club

Consensus Traders

Al Nassr Club 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

43.7¢ → 78¢

+79% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAl Nassr Club at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Al Nassr Club

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Al Nassr Club78%

Pakhtakor22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Al Nassr Club5 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares6,025

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Pakhtakor3 traders

Total Value$179.9

Total Shares324

Combined PnL-$61.49

Al Nassr Club — 63%Pakhtakor — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Al Nassr Clubavg 45.3¢	$2.5K	$3.9K	+$1.4K	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Pakhtakoravg 56.6¢	$4.9K	$2.6K	$-2.3K	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
└ Pakhtakor leg	Pakhtakoravg 56.6¢	$3.8K	$1.5K	$-2.3K
└ Al Nassr Club leg	Al Nassr Clubavg 73¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$72.23
poshposh	Al Nassr Clubavg 33.8¢	$363.66	$743.18	+$379.52	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
RE retarb<$100	Al Nassr Clubavg 46.2¢	$94.47	$96.17	+$1.7	48% 4277-4580 (8857)
RO Rocko33<$100	Al Nassr Clubavg 58¢	$64.65	$80.85	+$16.2	64% 1287-726 (2013)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Pakhtakoravg 63.7¢	$66.85	$78.23	+$11.37	51% 1005-965 (1970)
MY myxiCTR	Pakhtakoravg 91¢	$109.2	$73.8	-$35.4	67% 395-197 (592)
US User7429<$100	Al Nassr Clubavg 48.4¢	$55.81	$70.74	+$14.93	55% 8534-6852 (15386)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pakhtakoravg 61.3¢	$65.34	$27.87	-$37.46	53% 6378-5764 (12142)

GoalLineGhost

Al Nassr Club

Invested

$2,502.05

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Pakhtakor

Invested

$4,903.52

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

Both legs:

Pakhtakor$3,839.2856.6¢$-2.3K

Al Nassr Club$1,064.2473¢+$72.23

poshposh

Al Nassr Club

Invested

$363.66

Value

$743.18

PnL

+$379.52

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

retarb<$100

Al Nassr Club

Invested

$94.47

Value

$96.17

PnL

+$1.7

Record

48%

4277-4580 (8857)

Rocko33<$100

Al Nassr Club

Invested

$64.65

Value

$80.85

PnL

+$16.2

Record

64%

1287-726 (2013)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Pakhtakor

Invested

$66.85

Value

$78.23

PnL

+$11.37

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

myxiCTR

Pakhtakor

Invested

$109.2

Value

$73.8

PnL

-$35.4

Record

67%

395-197 (592)

User7429<$100

Al Nassr Club

Invested

$55.81

Value

$70.74

PnL

+$14.93

Record

55%

8534-6852 (15386)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pakhtakor

Invested

$65.34

Value

$27.87

PnL

-$37.46

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

Research grade

NeutralAl Nassr Club at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Al Nassr Club

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Al Nassr Club wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.