Spread: Al Nassr Club (-2.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Al Nassr Club (25%) · Al Nassr Club at 97¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 2

Al Nassr Club97¢Pakhtakor3¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Al Nassr Club

Consensus Traders

Al Nassr Club 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$831.87

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 96.5¢

+58% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralAl Nassr Club at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Al Nassr Club

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Al Nassr Club97%

Pakhtakor4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Al Nassr Club2 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,805

Combined PnL+$956.36

Pakhtakor6 traders

Total Value$472.63

Total Shares6,427

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Al Nassr Club — 25%Pakhtakor — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Al Nassr Clubavg 60.8¢	$3.5K	$4.5K	+$935.67	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pakhtakoravg 34.2¢	$2.0K	$267.49	$-1.8K	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Al Nassr Clubavg 75.5¢	$90.85	$125.17	+$34.32	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
└ Pakhtakor leg	Pakhtakoravg 3¢	$43.5	$65.25	+$21.75
└ Al Nassr Club leg	Al Nassr Clubavg 75.5¢	$47.35	$59.92	+$12.57
poshposhCTR	Pakhtakoravg 21.9¢	$107.64	$104.45	-$3.19	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
LR lryyy<$100	Al Nassr Clubavg 68.2¢	$63.47	$84.17	+$20.7	46% 7938-9258 (17196)
RN1CTR<$100	Pakhtakoravg 72.8¢	$71.89	$51.33	-$20.56	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pakhtakoravg 42.7¢	$28.28	$32.47	+$4.19	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
MY myxiCTR<$100	Pakhtakoravg 78¢	$10.49	$10.36	+$0.13	67% 395-197 (592)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Pakhtakoravg 55¢	$8.25	$6.53	-$1.72	51% 1005-965 (1970)

GoalLineGhost

Al Nassr Club

Invested

$3,549.56

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$935.67

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

FlaznorpCTR

Pakhtakor

Invested

$2,034.58

Value

$267.49

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

cigarettesARB<$100

Al Nassr Club

Invested

$90.85

Value

$125.17

PnL

+$34.32

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

Both legs:

Pakhtakor$43.53¢+$21.75

Al Nassr Club$47.3575.5¢+$12.57

poshposhCTR

Pakhtakor

Invested

$107.64

Value

$104.45

PnL

-$3.19

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

lryyy<$100

Al Nassr Club

Invested

$63.47

Value

$84.17

PnL

+$20.7

Record

46%

7938-9258 (17196)

RN1CTR<$100

Pakhtakor

Invested

$71.89

Value

$51.33

PnL

-$20.56

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pakhtakor

Invested

$28.28

Value

$32.47

PnL

+$4.19

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

myxiCTR<$100

Pakhtakor

Invested

$10.49

Value

$10.36

PnL

+$0.13

Record

67%

395-197 (592)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Pakhtakor

Invested

$8.25

Value

$6.53

PnL

-$1.72

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

Research grade

NeutralAl Nassr Club at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Al Nassr Club

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Al Nassr Club wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.