Will Pakhtakor win on 2026-11-02?

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 2

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$444.24

Smart Money Entry

94.7¢ → 98.9¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,164

Combined PnL-$88.41

Yes8 traders

Total Value$946.82

Total Shares4,701

Combined PnL+$532.65

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DI dips.	Noavg 98.4¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$8.14	46% 7320-8504 (15824)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 89.1¢	$917.13	$944.01	+$26.88	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
oieshfn345	Noavg 93.1¢	$1.0K	$842.75	-$169.4	57% 1895-1417 (3312)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$281.41	$562.82	+$281.41	40% 1074-1636 (2710)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 11.7¢	$150.82	$230.16	+$79.34	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11.7¢	$88.86	$182.1	+$93.25
└ No leg	Noavg 98¢	$61.97	$48.05	-$13.91
tradecraftCTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$12	$156	+$144	51% 6159-5875 (12034)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 13.1¢	$66.04	$121.22	+$55.18	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$78.72	$78.92	+$0.2	49% 2602-2659 (5261)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 87¢	$7.17	$75.8	+$68.63	51% 1005-965 (1970)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$4.84	$52.88	+$48.04	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$39.07	$39.69	+$0.62	58% 43617-31727 (75344)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 76¢	$33.44	$33.44	+$0	46% 7938-9258 (17196)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$23.11	$22.82	-$0.28	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
RO Rocky31<$100	Noavg 96¢	$24	$19	-$5	74% 1759-610 (2369)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$5	$9.6	+$4.6	54% 6560-5514 (12074)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.9	$7.6	-$1.3	76% 4233-1325 (5558)
GO gollazaCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$2.8	$2.4	-$0.4	66% 3104-1623 (4727)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$3	$2.2	-$0.8	48% 3291-3584 (6875)

dips.

Invested

$2,000.21

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$8.14

Record

46%

7320-8504 (15824)

Flaznorp

Invested

$917.13

Value

$944.01

PnL

+$26.88

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,012.15

Value

$842.75

PnL

-$169.4

Record

57%

1895-1417 (3312)

mouzsynapseCTR

Yes

Invested

$281.41

Value

$562.82

PnL

+$281.41

Record

40%

1074-1636 (2710)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$150.82

Value

$230.16

PnL

+$79.34

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

Both legs:

Yes$88.8611.7¢+$93.25

No$61.9798¢-$13.91

tradecraftCTR

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$156

PnL

+$144

Record

51%

6159-5875 (12034)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$66.04

Value

$121.22

PnL

+$55.18

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Invested

$78.72

Value

$78.92

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

2602-2659 (5261)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$7.17

Value

$75.8

PnL

+$68.63

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.84

Value

$52.88

PnL

+$48.04

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.07

Value

$39.69

PnL

+$0.62

Record

58%

43617-31727 (75344)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$33.44

Value

$33.44

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

7938-9258 (17196)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$23.11

Value

$22.82

PnL

-$0.28

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

Rocky31<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$19

PnL

-$5

Record

74%

1759-610 (2369)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$4.6

Record

54%

6560-5514 (12074)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$8.9

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$1.3

Record

76%

4233-1325 (5558)

gollazaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

66%

3104-1623 (4727)

smithagentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.8

Record

48%

3291-3584 (6875)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.