Al Nassr Club leading at halftime?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
10
Yes 60%
$3.6K
$483.53
73.6¢ → 100¢
+36% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 67.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$300.26 | 50% 26430-26259 (52689) |
SN SnakeBall | Yesavg 97.5¢ | $570.06 | $577.27 | +$7.21 | 50% 34712-34175 (68887) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 97.9¢ | $580.15 | $510.07 | -$70.08 | 54% 58154-50376 (108530) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 61.7¢ | $241.03 | $387.11 | +$146.08 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
CI cigarettes | Yesavg 40¢ | $136.59 | $330.91 | +$194.32 | 56% 18394-14718 (33112) |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $25.56 | $20.42 | -$5.14 | 58% 11442-8290 (19732) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.9¢ | $3.48 | $14.22 | +$10.74 | 48% 3291-3584 (6875) |
DI dips.CTR<$100 | Noavg 13.3¢ | $31.14 | $7.72 | -$23.42 | 46% 7320-8504 (15824) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $65.34 | $1.03 | -$64.31 | 49% 13480-14176 (27656) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.8¢ | $13.14 | $1 | -$12.14 | 53% 6378-5764 (12142) |
Invested
$1,487.01
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$300.26
Record
50%
26430-26259 (52689)
Invested
$570.06
Value
$577.27
PnL
+$7.21
Record
50%
34712-34175 (68887)
RN1Invested
$580.15
Value
$510.07
PnL
-$70.08
Record
54%
58154-50376 (108530)
Invested
$241.03
Value
$387.11
PnL
+$146.08
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
Invested
$136.59
Value
$330.91
PnL
+$194.32
Record
56%
18394-14718 (33112)
poshposh<$100Invested
$25.56
Value
$20.42
PnL
-$5.14
Record
58%
11442-8290 (19732)
Invested
$3.48
Value
$14.22
PnL
+$10.74
Record
48%
3291-3584 (6875)
Invested
$31.14
Value
$7.72
PnL
-$23.42
Record
46%
7320-8504 (15824)
Invested
$65.34
Value
$1.03
PnL
-$64.31
Record
49%
13480-14176 (27656)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$13.14
Value
$1
PnL
-$12.14
Record
53%
6378-5764 (12142)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.