Will Pakhtakor vs. Al Nassr Club end in a draw?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$73.96

Smart Money Entry

85.8¢ → 99.6¢

+16% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,303

Combined PnL+$74.74

Yes1 trader

Total Value$29.82

Total Shares157

Combined PnL-$0.78

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 83.9¢	$399.72	$433.85	+$34.13	57% 1895-1417 (3312)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 81¢	$322	$376.92	+$35.54	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 94.7¢	$270.14	$273.61	+$3.47	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
RN1<$100	Noavg 96¢	$48	$47.98	-$0.02	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 81¢	$47.6	$45.25	-$2.35	51% 1005-965 (1970)
MY myxiCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$29.82	$29.82	-$0.78	67% 395-197 (592)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 95¢	$19	$19.08	+$0.08	54% 6560-5514 (12074)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 77¢	$13.66	$16.87	+$3.21	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$6.6	$7.28	+$0.68	53% 6378-5764 (12142)

oieshfn345

Invested

$399.72

Value

$433.85

PnL

+$34.13

Record

57%

1895-1417 (3312)

Flaznorp

Invested

$322

Value

$376.92

PnL

+$35.54

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$270.14

Value

$273.61

PnL

+$3.47

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

RN1<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$47.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$47.6

Value

$45.25

PnL

-$2.35

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

myxiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.82

Value

$29.82

PnL

-$0.78

Record

67%

395-197 (592)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$19.08

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

6560-5514 (12074)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$13.66

Value

$16.87

PnL

+$3.21

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

$7.28

PnL

+$0.68

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.