Pakhtakor vs. Al Nassr Club: Both Teams to Score

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 2

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$141.11

Smart Money Entry

67.4¢ → 99.5¢

+48% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$804.51

Total Shares950

Combined PnL+$141.81

No3 traders

Total Value$152.43

Total Shares371

Combined PnL-$0.7

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$309.38	$573.54	+$157.76	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54¢	$396.18	$440.54	+$279.32
└ No leg	Noavg 44.6¢	$148.16	$133	-$121.56
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 44.9¢	$574.76	$542.25	-$32.51	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.9¢	$406.51	$367.05	-$39.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.1¢	$168.25	$175.2	+$6.95
DI dips.	Yesavg 76.6¢	$285.06	$367.09	+$82.03	46% 7320-8504 (15824)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 54.8¢	$158.19	$178.7	+$20.51	58% 43617-31727 (75344)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 40.6¢	$116.76	$116.36	-$0.4	50% 34712-34175 (68887)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 74.3¢	$80.53	$98.62	+$18.09	46% 7938-9258 (17196)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 76.7¢	$61.4	$77.25	+$15.86	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$35.54	$51.12	+$15.58	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 45.3¢	$20.6	$19.53	-$0.16	62% 1231-751 (1982)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 45.4¢	$17.44	$16.53	-$0.14	49% 13480-14176 (27656)
US User7429<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$14.58	$14.86	+$0.28	55% 8534-6852 (15386)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$10.83	$11.87	+$1.04	50% 11455-11293 (22748)
RO Rocky31<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$24.13	$5	-$11.57	74% 1759-610 (2369)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$309.38

Value

$573.54

PnL

+$157.76

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

Both legs:

Yes$396.1854¢+$279.32

No$148.1644.6¢-$121.56

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$574.76

Value

$542.25

PnL

-$32.51

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

Both legs:

No$406.5144.9¢-$39.46

Yes$168.2557.1¢+$6.95

dips.

Yes

Invested

$285.06

Value

$367.09

PnL

+$82.03

Record

46%

7320-8504 (15824)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$158.19

Value

$178.7

PnL

+$20.51

Record

58%

43617-31727 (75344)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$116.76

Value

$116.36

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

34712-34175 (68887)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.53

Value

$98.62

PnL

+$18.09

Record

46%

7938-9258 (17196)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.4

Value

$77.25

PnL

+$15.86

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.54

Value

$51.12

PnL

+$15.58

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$20.6

Value

$19.53

PnL

-$0.16

Record

62%

1231-751 (1982)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$17.44

Value

$16.53

PnL

-$0.14

Record

49%

13480-14176 (27656)

User7429<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.58

Value

$14.86

PnL

+$0.28

Record

55%

8534-6852 (15386)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.83

Value

$11.87

PnL

+$1.04

Record

50%

11455-11293 (22748)

Rocky31<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.13

Value

PnL

-$11.57

Record

74%

1759-610 (2369)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.