Will Al Nassr Club win on 2026-11-02?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 69¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 2

Yes69¢No31¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$59.29

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 68.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,024

Combined PnL-$17.38

No5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares6,855

Combined PnL-$41.91

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Yesavg 67¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$20.03	46% 7287-8587 (15874)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Noavg 33¢	$989.99	$959.99	+$0	53% 5746-5083 (10829)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 32.6¢	$556.15	$536.22	-$18.88	58% 43585-31701 (75286)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 32¢	$220.05	$488.28	-$25.09	51% 17602-16613 (34215)
0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816	Yesavg 67¢	$180	$182.69	+$2.69	70% 344-145 (489)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Noavg 31.5¢	$125.99	$126.05	+$2.06	54% 5008-4227 (9235)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$66.63	$66.63	-$0	50% 24998-24713 (49711)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 68.1¢	$21.89	$21.85	-$0.04	44% 6422-8027 (14449)

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$2,495.82

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$20.03

Record

46%

7287-8587 (15874)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Invested

$989.99

Value

$959.99

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5746-5083 (10829)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$556.15

Value

$536.22

PnL

-$18.88

Record

58%

43585-31701 (75286)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$220.05

Value

$488.28

PnL

-$25.09

Record

51%

17602-16613 (34215)

0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816

Yes

Invested

$180

Value

$182.69

PnL

+$2.69

Record

70%

344-145 (489)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Invested

$125.99

Value

$126.05

PnL

+$2.06

Record

54%

5008-4227 (9235)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$66.63

Value

$66.63

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

24998-24713 (49711)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.89

Value

$21.85

PnL

-$0.04

Record

44%

6422-8027 (14449)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.