Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Shanghai Port FC win on 2026-11-03?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 49¢ · $894 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$893.55
-$69.62
52.8¢ → 48.5¢
-8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 52.9¢ | $881.43 | $807.84 | -$73.6 | 51% 21008-19991 (40999) |
IW iWasEnough<$100 | Yesavg 43.1¢ | $28.7 | $34.63 | +$6.26 | 51% 11480-10851 (22331) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.8¢ | $23.44 | $23.04 | -$0.4 | 50% 19928-20296 (40224) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $9.52 | $9.52 | +$0 | 45% 13208-16070 (29278) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $7.51 | $6.33 | -$0.99 | 48% 5733-6182 (11915) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $5.6 | $4.8 | -$0.75 | 46% 9307-11077 (20384) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $5.1 | $4.8 | -$0.3 | 52% 6768-6135 (12903) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.6 | +$0.15 | 50% 25084-24791 (49875) |
Invested
$881.43
Value
$807.84
PnL
-$73.6
Record
51%
21008-19991 (40999)
Invested
$28.7
Value
$34.63
PnL
+$6.26
Record
51%
11480-10851 (22331)
Invested
$23.44
Value
$23.04
PnL
-$0.4
Record
50%
19928-20296 (40224)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$9.52
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
13208-16070 (29278)
Invested
$7.51
Value
$6.33
PnL
-$0.99
Record
48%
5733-6182 (11915)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$0.75
Record
46%
9307-11077 (20384)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.1
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$0.3
Record
52%
6768-6135 (12903)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.15
Record
50%
25084-24791 (49875)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.