Kashima Antlers vs. FC Pohang Steelers: 1st Half O/U 0.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$4.2K
$1.5K
63.1¢ → 100¢
+58% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 45.8¢ | $731.31 | $1.6K | +$858.06 | 59% 44601-31003 (75604) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 87.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$131.49 | 72% 2282-870 (3152) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 31.2¢ | $342.99 | $884.07 | +$541.07 | 50% 32771-32328 (65099) |
MY myxiCTR | Overavg 65¢ | $361.4 | $447.58 | +$86.18 | 68% 334-158 (492) |
 RN1 | Underavg 57.8¢ | $82.05 | $115.76 | +$33.71 | 54% 55709-47794 (103503) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 53.9¢ | $24.3 | $13.64 | -$10.66 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 37.7¢ | $123.25 | $0.16 | -$123.08 | 50% 12108-12315 (24423) |
Invested
$731.31
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$858.06
Record
59%
44601-31003 (75604)
Invested
$1,032.49
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$131.49
Record
72%
2282-870 (3152)
Invested
$342.99
Value
$884.07
PnL
+$541.07
Record
50%
32771-32328 (65099)
Invested
$361.4
Value
$447.58
PnL
+$86.18
Record
68%
334-158 (492)
RN1Invested
$82.05
Value
$115.76
PnL
+$33.71
Record
54%
55709-47794 (103503)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$24.3
Value
$13.64
PnL
-$10.66
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
Invested
$123.25
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$123.08
Record
50%
12108-12315 (24423)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.