Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (80%). 0 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Al Hilal SFC vs. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: O/U 2.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 50¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 3

Over80¢Under50¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 50¢

-39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,357

Combined PnL+$309.01

Under4 traders

Total Value$838.97

Total Shares4,093

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 38.2¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$69.21	53% 59235-51541 (110776)
└ Over leg	Overavg 30.2¢	$533.37	$1.4K	+$870.01
└ Under leg	Underavg 38.2¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$939.22
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$980.67	$1.0K	+$35.18	82% 2570-571 (3141)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.3¢	$500.53	$807.6	+$307.07
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.3¢	$480.14	$208.25	-$271.89
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 54¢	$690.79	$973.35	+$282.57	50% 27453-27352 (54805)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 82.2¢	$2.2K	$540.87	$-1.6K	73% 2863-1078 (3941)
ZX zxc368	Underavg 99.9¢	$1.2K	$240.48	-$931.42	98% 14081-250 (14331)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Overavg 59¢	$71.95	$96.95	+$25	48% 5214-5722 (10936)
SM Smallcoins<$100	Underavg 11¢	$21.53	$40.1	+$18.57	53% 1187-1057 (2244)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Overavg 81.8¢	$36.8	$35.78	-$1.02	82% 6862-1481 (8343)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 82.7¢	$20.18	$19.39	-$0.79	66% 23882-12090 (35972)
SP spendingmoney<$100	Underavg 14¢	$40.95	$17.52	+$28.27	55% 824-663 (1487)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 72¢	$14.17	$15.65	+$1.48	57% 12000-9088 (21088)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 61.2¢	$5.95	$7.74	+$1.78	55% 8709-7002 (15711)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,560.11

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$69.21

Record

53%

59235-51541 (110776)

Both legs:

Over$533.3730.2¢+$870.01

Under$2,026.7438.2¢-$939.22

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$980.67

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$35.18

Record

82%

2570-571 (3141)

Both legs:

Over$500.5349.3¢+$307.07

Under$480.1447.3¢-$271.89

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$690.79

Value

$973.35

PnL

+$282.57

Record

50%

27453-27352 (54805)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$2,168.43

Value

$540.87

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

73%

2863-1078 (3941)

zxc368

Under

Invested

$1,171.9

Value

$240.48

PnL

-$931.42

Record

98%

14081-250 (14331)

SlickRick123<$100

Over

Invested

$71.95

Value

$96.95

PnL

+$25

Record

48%

5214-5722 (10936)

Smallcoins<$100

Under

Invested

$21.53

Value

$40.1

PnL

+$18.57

Record

53%

1187-1057 (2244)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Over

Invested

$36.8

Value

$35.78

PnL

-$1.02

Record

82%

6862-1481 (8343)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$20.18

Value

$19.39

PnL

-$0.79

Record

66%

23882-12090 (35972)

spendingmoney<$100

Under

Invested

$40.95

Value

$17.52

PnL

+$28.27

Record

55%

824-663 (1487)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$14.17

Value

$15.65

PnL

+$1.48

Record

57%

12000-9088 (21088)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$5.95

Value

$7.74

PnL

+$1.78

Record

55%

8709-7002 (15711)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.