Will Al Hilal SFC win on 2026-11-03?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (62%) · Yes at 84¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 3

Yes84¢No16¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 62%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$62.97

Smart Money Entry

78.2¢ → 84¢

+7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,009

Combined PnL+$95.28

No5 traders

Total Value$45.27

Total Shares283

Combined PnL-$32.31

Yes — 62%No — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 68.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$45.04	50% 27338-27264 (54602)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68.5¢	$956.37	$1.2K	+$202.79
└ No leg	Noavg 25.3¢	$674.11	$426.28	-$247.84
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$92.69	51% 23440-22208 (45648)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68¢	$615.2	$751.15	+$135.95
└ No leg	Noavg 30.3¢	$483.79	$255.16	-$228.64
DI dips.	Yesavg 77.9¢	$854.94	$919.21	+$64.28	47% 10150-11471 (21621)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 21.3¢	$748.5	$603.09	-$145.4	53% 59089-51396 (110485)
└ No leg	Noavg 21.3¢	$593.29	$445.99	-$147.3
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 82¢	$155.21	$157.1	+$1.89
oieshfn345	Yesavg 80.7¢	$407.3	$404.62	-$2.67	57% 1959-1450 (3409)
FO forrestgumper	Yesavg 80.9¢	$141.14	$144.84	+$3.7	48% 639-706 (1345)
poshposh	Yesavg 79¢	$118.6	$124.71	+$6.11	57% 11890-8983 (20873)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100	Noavg 26¢	$69.49	$92.83	+$12.55	53% 5823-5227 (11050)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66¢	$49.08	$61.73	+$1.86
└ No leg	Noavg 26¢	$50.54	$31.1	+$10.69
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$53.6	$66.4	+$0.4	58% 30513-22280 (52793)
SU suntori	Yesavg 65.5¢	$100.78	$35.01	+$26.85	45% 13709-16632 (30341)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 30.2¢	$65.18	$34.56	-$30.62	45% 10667-12831 (23498)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$22.8	$19.8	-$3	54% 6748-5672 (12420)
RO Rocky31<$100	Yesavg 85.6¢	$12.35	$11.97	-$0.38	74% 1820-625 (2445)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 27.8¢	$2.97	$4.03	+$1.05	48% 6175-6580 (12755)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 31.7¢	$5.96	$3.01	-$2.95	51% 6228-5972 (12200)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 29.2¢	$2.47	$2.88	+$0.41	51% 7362-7108 (14470)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$1	$0.8	-$0.2	65% 5090-2761 (7851)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,630.49

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$45.04

Record

50%

27338-27264 (54602)

Both legs:

Yes$956.3768.5¢+$202.79

No$674.1125.3¢-$247.84

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,098.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$92.69

Record

51%

23440-22208 (45648)

Both legs:

Yes$615.268¢+$135.95

No$483.7930.3¢-$228.64

dips.

Yes

Invested

$854.94

Value

$919.21

PnL

+$64.28

Record

47%

10150-11471 (21621)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$748.5

Value

$603.09

PnL

-$145.4

Record

53%

59089-51396 (110485)

Both legs:

No$593.2921.3¢-$147.3

Yes$155.2182¢+$1.89

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$407.3

Value

$404.62

PnL

-$2.67

Record

57%

1959-1450 (3409)

forrestgumper

Yes

Invested

$141.14

Value

$144.84

PnL

+$3.7

Record

48%

639-706 (1345)

poshposh

Yes

Invested

$118.6

Value

$124.71

PnL

+$6.11

Record

57%

11890-8983 (20873)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100

Invested

$69.49

Value

$92.83

PnL

+$12.55

Record

53%

5823-5227 (11050)

Both legs:

Invested

$53.6

Value

$66.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

58%

30513-22280 (52793)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$100.78

Value

$35.01

PnL

+$26.85

Record

45%

13709-16632 (30341)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$65.18

Value

$34.56

PnL

-$30.62

Record

45%

10667-12831 (23498)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.8

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$3

Record

54%

6748-5672 (12420)

Rocky31<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.35

Value

$11.97

PnL

-$0.38

Record

74%

1820-625 (2445)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$2.97

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$1.05

Record

48%

6175-6580 (12755)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$5.96

Value

$3.01

PnL

-$2.95

Record

51%

6228-5972 (12200)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$2.47

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$0.41

Record

51%

7362-7108 (14470)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

65%

5090-2761 (7851)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.