Al Hilal SFC vs. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: 1st Half O/U 1.5

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 3

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 96¢

+94% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares2,989

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over6 traders

Total Value$34.45

Total Shares861

Combined PnL-$286.74

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 54.2¢	$720.43	$1.3K	+$541.52	53% 59089-51396 (110485)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 43.2¢	$311.88	$683.39	+$371.51	52% 847-783 (1630)
LI Limousin	Underavg 41.6¢	$183.79	$441.06	+$257.27	56% 959-749 (1708)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 45.2¢	$230.1	$281.82	+$51.72	53% 921-802 (1723)
LO lonmi2511	Underavg 57¢	$70.28	$123.18	+$52.9	54% 1272-1062 (2334)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100	Underavg 55¢	$54.88	$99.68	+$44.8	54% 5096-4311 (9407)
DA dashattacker<$100	Underavg 63.2¢	$50.95	$80.56	+$29.61	73% 2832-1071 (3903)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 55¢	$27.5	$49.95	+$22.45	58% 44668-32527 (77195)
DI dips.CTR	Overavg 43.2¢	$218.89	$20.27	-$198.62	47% 10150-11471 (21621)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$60.14	$7.76	-$52.38	49% 14113-14680 (28793)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 54.2¢	$40.14	$2.96	-$37.18	48% 5299-5685 (10984)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 33.4¢	$20.3	$2.43	-$17.86	57% 11890-8983 (20873)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 40.9¢	$53.6	$0.6	+$22.24	45% 13709-16632 (30341)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Overavg 31.4¢	$3.36	$0.43	-$2.93	47% 1106-1255 (2361)

RN1

Under

Invested

$720.43

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$541.52

Record

53%

59089-51396 (110485)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$311.88

Value

$683.39

PnL

+$371.51

Record

52%

847-783 (1630)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$183.79

Value

$441.06

PnL

+$257.27

Record

56%

959-749 (1708)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$230.1

Value

$281.82

PnL

+$51.72

Record

53%

921-802 (1723)

lonmi2511

Under

Invested

$70.28

Value

$123.18

PnL

+$52.9

Record

54%

1272-1062 (2334)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100

Under

Invested

$54.88

Value

$99.68

PnL

+$44.8

Record

54%

5096-4311 (9407)

dashattacker<$100

Under

Invested

$50.95

Value

$80.56

PnL

+$29.61

Record

73%

2832-1071 (3903)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$27.5

Value

$49.95

PnL

+$22.45

Record

58%

44668-32527 (77195)

dips.CTR

Over

Invested

$218.89

Value

$20.27

PnL

-$198.62

Record

47%

10150-11471 (21621)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$60.14

Value

$7.76

PnL

-$52.38

Record

49%

14113-14680 (28793)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.14

Value

$2.96

PnL

-$37.18

Record

48%

5299-5685 (10984)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.3

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$17.86

Record

57%

11890-8983 (20873)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.6

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$22.24

Record

45%

13709-16632 (30341)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.36

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$2.93

Record

47%

1106-1255 (2361)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.