Will Buriram United win on 2026-11-04?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 82¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 4

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$184.77

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 81.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,127

Combined PnL+$20.2

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,917

Combined PnL+$164.57

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$4.8K	$4.3K	-$506.47	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
└ No leg	Noavg 76¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$158.17
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.9¢	$2.6K	$1.9K	-$664.64
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$229.18	50% 27765-27628 (55393)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.5¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$144.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.8¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$373.24
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 72.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$28.9	39% 1335-2099 (3434)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.3¢	$790.33	$786.81	-$3.52
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.3¢	$304.73	$337.15	+$32.42
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 24.6¢	$1.2K	$988.79	-$224.93	53% 60045-52422 (112467)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.6¢	$944.94	$709.41	-$235.53
└ No leg	Noavg 78.4¢	$268.78	$279.38	+$10.59
NM NM-P	Noavg 71.9¢	$842.74	$863.62	+$20.88	46% 1301-1520 (2821)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Yesavg 22.9¢	$558.22	$681.93	+$123.71	74% 2420-861 (3281)
LO lonmi2511	Noavg 81¢	$464.57	$467.44	+$2.87	55% 1303-1085 (2388)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 74.1¢	$286.85	$278.89	-$7.96	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
SE sentrioCTR	Yesavg 26.4¢	$246.56	$261.24	+$14.68	50% 25480-25186 (50666)
2H 2HAECTR	Yesavg 28¢	$207.25	$207.36	+$0.11	63% 1168-700 (1868)
tradecraftCTR	Yesavg 22.9¢	$98.1	$120.17	+$22.07	51% 6273-6027 (12300)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$107.99	$111.99	+$4	51% 1789-1707 (3496)
DI dips.<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$93.19	$97.6	+$4.41	47% 10348-11772 (22120)
HRTradingARB<$100	Yesavg 28.3¢	$69.83	$68.29	-$1.54	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.3¢	$36.09	$35.7	-$0.39
└ No leg	Noavg 74.5¢	$33.75	$32.59	-$1.15

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,770.26

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$506.47

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

Both legs:

No$2,182.1776¢+$158.17

Yes$2,588.0924.9¢-$664.64

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$3,291.24

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$229.18

Record

50%

27765-27628 (55393)

Both legs:

No$1,826.0275.5¢+$144.06

Yes$1,465.2224.8¢-$373.24

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,095.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$28.9

Record

39%

1335-2099 (3434)

Both legs:

No$790.3372.3¢-$3.52

Yes$304.7325.3¢+$32.42

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,213.72

Value

$988.79

PnL

-$224.93

Record

53%

60045-52422 (112467)

Both legs:

Yes$944.9424.6¢-$235.53

No$268.7878.4¢+$10.59

NM-P

Invested

$842.74

Value

$863.62

PnL

+$20.88

Record

46%

1301-1520 (2821)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Yes

Invested

$558.22

Value

$681.93

PnL

+$123.71

Record

74%

2420-861 (3281)

lonmi2511

Invested

$464.57

Value

$467.44

PnL

+$2.87

Record

55%

1303-1085 (2388)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$286.85

Value

$278.89

PnL

-$7.96

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

sentrioCTR

Yes

Invested

$246.56

Value

$261.24

PnL

+$14.68

Record

50%

25480-25186 (50666)

2HAECTR

Yes

Invested

$207.25

Value

$207.36

PnL

+$0.11

Record

63%

1168-700 (1868)

tradecraftCTR

Yes

Invested

$98.1

Value

$120.17

PnL

+$22.07

Record

51%

6273-6027 (12300)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$107.99

Value

$111.99

PnL

+$4

Record

51%

1789-1707 (3496)

dips.<$100

Invested

$93.19

Value

$97.6

PnL

+$4.41

Record

47%

10348-11772 (22120)

HRTradingARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.83

Value

$68.29

PnL

-$1.54

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

Both legs:

Yes$36.0928.3¢-$0.39

No$33.7574.5¢-$1.15

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.