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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 67¢ · $124 held · ends Jan 4, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$123.58
$0.48
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 67.8¢ | $62.3 | $61.58 | -$0.72 | 41% 3040-4429 (7469) |
 G.HchenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $32 | $33 | +$1 | 0% 0-96 (96) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $15.28 | $14.83 | -$0.44 | 8% 29-324 (353) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $9.96 | $10.61 | +$0.64 | 48% 1222-1315 (2537) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $3.56 | $3.56 | +$0 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
Invested
$62.3
Value
$61.58
PnL
-$0.72
Record
41%
3040-4429 (7469)
G.HchenCTR<$100Invested
$32
Value
$33
PnL
+$1
Record
0%
0-96 (96)
Invested
$15.28
Value
$14.83
PnL
-$0.44
Record
8%
29-324 (353)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$9.96
Value
$10.61
PnL
+$0.64
Record
48%
1222-1315 (2537)
Invested
$3.56
Value
$3.56
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.