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2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 82¢ · $102 held · ends Jan 4, 2027

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Mon, Jan 4, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$101.73

Combined PnL

-$4.74

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$73.76

Total Shares87

Combined PnL+$2.76

Yes2 traders

Total Value$27.97

Total Shares155

Combined PnL-$7.5

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 77¢	$52.62	$55.61	+$2.98	40% 2992-4404 (7396)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$30.44	$23.82	-$6.62	48% 1222-1315 (2537)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 83¢	$18.38	$18.15	-$0.22	10% 25-236 (261)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.9¢	$5.03	$4.15	-$0.89	52% 210-197 (407)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$52.62

Value

$55.61

PnL

+$2.98

Record

40%

2992-4404 (7396)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.44

Value

$23.82

PnL

-$6.62

Record

48%

1222-1315 (2537)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$18.38

Value

$18.15

PnL

-$0.22

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.03

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$0.89

Record

52%

210-197 (407)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.