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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 81¢ · $449 held · ends Jan 4, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$448.73
$16.83
73.1¢ → 81¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 73.7¢ | $190.63 | $195.96 | +$5.33 | 41% 3094-4459 (7553) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 72¢ | $111.87 | $118.08 | +$6.21 | 53% 5575-4959 (10534) |
SL SlavaUkrainiCTR | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $106.56 | $111.14 | +$4.57 | 73% 142-53 (195) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $15.94 | $16.83 | +$0.89 | 27% 921-2513 (3434) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $6.89 | $6.72 | -$0.17 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
Invested
$190.63
Value
$195.96
PnL
+$5.33
Record
41%
3094-4459 (7553)
Invested
$111.87
Value
$118.08
PnL
+$6.21
Record
53%
5575-4959 (10534)
Invested
$106.56
Value
$111.14
PnL
+$4.57
Record
73%
142-53 (195)
Invested
$15.94
Value
$16.83
PnL
+$0.89
Record
27%
921-2513 (3434)
Invested
$6.89
Value
$6.72
PnL
-$0.17
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.