Will 240 or more House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 92¢ · $675 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$675.25
$0.65
89.5¢ → 92.4¢
+3% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bernardbulletin | Noavg 90¢ | $370.93 | $380.69 | +$9.76 | 70% 373-160 (533) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $86.34 | $89.01 | +$2.67 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $76.43 | $75.89 | -$0.54 | 28% 827-2133 (2960) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $54.76 | $54.02 | -$0.74 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
PA pantomimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.8¢ | $41.47 | $32 | -$9.47 | — 2-3 (5) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 84.9¢ | $20.39 | $17.72 | -$2.67 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $11.69 | $11.52 | -$0.16 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 82.2¢ | $21.64 | $8.39 | +$1.19 | — 0-12 (12) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $5.4 | $6.01 | +$0.62 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
bernardbulletinInvested
$370.93
Value
$380.69
PnL
+$9.76
Record
70%
373-160 (533)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$86.34
Value
$89.01
PnL
+$2.67
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
Invested
$76.43
Value
$75.89
PnL
-$0.54
Record
28%
827-2133 (2960)
balthazar<$100Invested
$54.76
Value
$54.02
PnL
-$0.74
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$41.47
Value
$32
PnL
-$9.47
Record
—
2-3 (5)
Invested
$20.39
Value
$17.72
PnL
-$2.67
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Invested
$11.69
Value
$11.52
PnL
-$0.16
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$21.64
Value
$8.39
PnL
+$1.19
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.4
Value
$6.01
PnL
+$0.62
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.