Will 235-239 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 97¢ · $165 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$165.45
-$1.44
97¢ → 96.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $72.03 | $71.66 | -$0.37 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $45.62 | $44.94 | -$0.68 | 50% 4487-4433 (8920) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $29.64 | $28.67 | -$0.98 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $12.54 | $12.23 | -$0.31 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $6.59 | $6.37 | -$0.21 | 35% 2886-5323 (8209) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.36 | $1.34 | +$0.98 | 40% 3002-4411 (7413) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.11 | $0.25 | +$0.14 | — 8-8 (16) |
Invested
$72.03
Value
$71.66
PnL
-$0.37
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
balthazar<$100Invested
$45.62
Value
$44.94
PnL
-$0.68
Record
50%
4487-4433 (8920)
Invested
$29.64
Value
$28.67
PnL
-$0.98
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$12.54
Value
$12.23
PnL
-$0.31
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6.59
Value
$6.37
PnL
-$0.21
Record
35%
2886-5323 (8209)
Invested
$0.36
Value
$1.34
PnL
+$0.98
Record
40%
3002-4411 (7413)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.25
PnL
+$0.14
Record
—
8-8 (16)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.