Will 230-234 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $158 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$158.15
-$3.34
95.5¢ → 94.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 95.3¢ | $100.05 | $98.23 | -$1.82 | 4% 17-366 (383) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $41.99 | $41.35 | -$0.64 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $12.6 | $11.97 | -$0.63 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $6.4 | $6.24 | -$0.16 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $0.45 | $0.36 | -$0.09 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
Invested
$100.05
Value
$98.23
PnL
-$1.82
Record
4%
17-366 (383)
balthazar<$100Invested
$41.99
Value
$41.35
PnL
-$0.64
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$12.6
Value
$11.97
PnL
-$0.63
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6.4
Value
$6.24
PnL
-$0.16
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$0.09
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.