Will 225-229 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 88¢ · $112 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$111.76
-$3.17
88.4¢ → 87.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 87.9¢ | $59.82 | $57.82 | -$2 | 16% 10-54 (64) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $26.1 | $25.5 | -$0.6 | 28% 826-2133 (2959) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $12.16 | $10.88 | -$1.28 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $7.99 | $7.89 | -$0.09 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $6.07 | $5.67 | -$0.4 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $2.8 | $4 | +$1.2 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$59.82
Value
$57.82
PnL
-$2
Record
16%
10-54 (64)
Invested
$26.1
Value
$25.5
PnL
-$0.6
Record
28%
826-2133 (2959)
Invested
$12.16
Value
$10.88
PnL
-$1.28
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$7.99
Value
$7.89
PnL
-$0.09
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6.07
Value
$5.67
PnL
-$0.4
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$4
PnL
+$1.2
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.