Will 220-224 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 78¢ · $273 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$273.08
$2.76
77.8¢ → 77.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LornaPredicts | Noavg 77.2¢ | $131.83 | $134.96 | +$3.12 | 16% 10-54 (64) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $59.25 | $59.25 | +$0 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $24 | $23.7 | -$0.3 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $35.09 | $23.05 | +$1.39 | — 0-12 (12) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $10.11 | $10.11 | +$0 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $10.86 | $9.4 | -$1.46 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $7.34 | $7.34 | +$0 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $5.27 | $5.27 | +$0 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
LornaPredictsInvested
$131.83
Value
$134.96
PnL
+$3.12
Record
16%
10-54 (64)
Invested
$59.25
Value
$59.25
PnL
+$0
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$24
Value
$23.7
PnL
-$0.3
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
Invested
$35.09
Value
$23.05
PnL
+$1.39
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$10.11
Value
$10.11
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$10.86
Value
$9.4
PnL
-$1.46
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
Invested
$7.34
Value
$7.34
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.27
Value
$5.27
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.