Will 215-219 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 69¢ · $687 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
1 arb excluded
$687.14
$0.72
70.4¢ → 68.5¢
-3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bernardbulletinARB<$100 | Noavg 65.7¢ | $354.7 | $394.76 | +$40.05 | 70% 373-160 (533) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.7¢ | $296.82 | $311.88 | +$15.06 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 22¢ | $57.88 | $82.88 | +$24.99 | |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 74.9¢ | $129.29 | $123.48 | -$5.81 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $48.75 | $51.75 | +$3 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $39 | $41.4 | +$2.4 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.5¢ | $32.99 | $35.21 | +$2.22 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $21.9 | $20.7 | -$1.2 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $8.32 | $8.83 | +$0.51 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $6.41 | $6.41 | +$0 | 5% 16-322 (338) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $5 | $4.6 | -$0.4 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
bernardbulletinARB<$100Invested
$354.7
Value
$394.76
PnL
+$40.05
Record
70%
373-160 (533)
Both legs:
Invested
$129.29
Value
$123.48
PnL
-$5.81
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Invested
$48.75
Value
$51.75
PnL
+$3
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39
Value
$41.4
PnL
+$2.4
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$32.99
Value
$35.21
PnL
+$2.22
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
Invested
$21.9
Value
$20.7
PnL
-$1.2
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Invested
$8.32
Value
$8.83
PnL
+$0.51
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$6.41
Value
$6.41
PnL
+$0
Record
5%
16-322 (338)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5
Value
$4.6
PnL
-$0.4
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.