Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$7.2K
$1.5K
0.7¢ → 0.9¢
+36% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $5.7K | +$1.4K | 43% 553-730 (1283) |
BU BunCaCham | Noavg 99.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$5 | 97% 2573-66 (2639) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.5¢ | $266.34 | $233.98 | -$0.83 | 45% 2054-2465 (4519) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $154.51 | $213.86 | +$62.65 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.82 | $0.22 | +$34.9 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
43%
553-730 (1283)
Invested
$1,105.45
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$5
Record
97%
2573-66 (2639)
Invested
$266.34
Value
$233.98
PnL
-$0.83
Record
45%
2054-2465 (4519)
Invested
$154.51
Value
$213.86
PnL
+$62.65
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
Invested
$0.82
Value
$0.22
PnL
+$34.9
Record
36%
15508-27510 (43018)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.