Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Maine and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$1.9K
$-2.7K
0.7¢ → 0.4¢
-49% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $1.5K | $-2.8K | 43% 553-730 (1283) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.7¢ | $299.87 | $297.97 | -$1.69 | 45% 2054-2465 (4519) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $106.13 | $101.29 | +$17.16 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $12.7 | $12.71 | +$0.01 | 57% 13766-10533 (24299) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $1.76 | $2.2 | +$0.44 | 41% 1963-2768 (4731) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.17 | $0.05 | -$0.12 | — 0-10 (10) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.75 | $0.05 | +$26.32 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$1.5K
PnL
$-2.8K
Record
43%
553-730 (1283)
Invested
$299.87
Value
$297.97
PnL
-$1.69
Record
45%
2054-2465 (4519)
Invested
$106.13
Value
$101.29
PnL
+$17.16
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
Invested
$12.7
Value
$12.71
PnL
+$0.01
Record
57%
13766-10533 (24299)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$1.76
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0.44
Record
41%
1963-2768 (4731)
Invested
$0.17
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.12
Record
—
0-10 (10)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.05
PnL
+$26.32
Record
36%
15508-27510 (43018)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.