Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $906 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$905.68
$-3.3K
0.7¢ → 0.1¢
-78% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $900 | $-3.4K | 43% 553-730 (1283) |
BU BunCaChamCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $2.78 | $5.56 | +$2.78 | 97% 2573-66 (2639) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.45 | $0.09 | -$0.36 | — 0-10 (10) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $1.9 | $0.04 | +$21.67 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$900
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
43%
553-730 (1283)
Invested
$2.78
Value
$5.56
PnL
+$2.78
Record
97%
2573-66 (2639)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$0.36
Record
—
0-10 (10)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$0.04
PnL
+$21.67
Record
36%
15508-27510 (43018)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.